EAST TIMOR: PRESIDENTIAL WIN GIVES NO PARLIAMENTARY GUARANTEE

EAST TIMOR: PRESIDENTIAL WIN GIVES NO PARLIAMENTARY GUARANTEE
Dili, 11 May (AKI) - The clear victory of Jose Ramos Horta in the East Timor presidential race does not mean his party will neccessarily repeat that success in the parliamentary vote in June, according to Damian Kingsbury, an academic and Australian expert. In an interview with Adnkronos International (AKI) Kingsbury indicated that Fretilin, the party of the defeated candidate for president Francisco 'Lu-Olo' Guterres, will sweep the polls.

According to non official results, Horta has secured 73 percent of the vote in Wednesday's run off which passed off peacefully.

"The two main characteristics of the voting have been the high voter turn-out, and the consistency of the vote" he said.

More than 80 percent of the 524,000 eligible electors took part in the polls, the first since East Timor won its independence in 2002. In the first round, on 9 April, Guterres had obtained nearly 28 percent of the preferences. The six defeated candidates had then told their supporters to back Horta in the run-off.

Horta said he would "work to accelerate the economic development of the country promoting foreign investment, eradicating poverty and healing teh wounds of the violence of the past year."

The presidential elections come after a year of political tension and violence which has polarised much of the population, forced a change of government, forced 150,000 Timorese to abandon their homes. In the violence put down with the arrival of foreign peacekeeping troops in which scores of people were killed.

Kingsbury pointed out that Fretilin continues to have a hard core of supporters and it will probably be enough to make it win the elections on 30 June.

From this consistent voting behavior, it is now possible to assume that Fretilin will receive around 30 percent of the votes in the coming parliamentary elections in June, which should be enough to gain the majority.

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The legislative elections are considered more important than the presidential vote as, in the Timorese political system, power resides with the prime ministers, the party member given the job of forming the government.

In any case, according to the predictions of analysts, Fretilin will need the support of the other parties to form the government and if the party of Guterres, led by the former prime minister Mari Alkatiri, does not manage to find a partner, the task of forming the government would go to the party which came second in the vote.

Among the top contenders Kingsbury indicated the party of the current president Xanana Gusmao, the National Congress for the Reconstruction of Timor, or Democratic Party.