Elections - Intel Brief: East Timor, change in the air

Continuing violence and mismanagement has led to a loss of support for the party that has dominated East Timor's political scene since independence, and June elections are likely to see a change in leadership

By Rachel F Kesselman
May 25, 2007

With the election of President Jose Ramos-Horta on 10 May 2007, it is unlikely that the contending Fretilin Party in East Timor will significantly rise above its current 30 percent voter support in the run-up to 30 June parliamentary elections. Thirty percent support in the upcoming election is likely to decimate Fretilin's dominance in the government, reducing the number of seats they hold to approximately 20 out of a 65-seat assembly.

Horta, a former Nobel Peace Prize winner, garnered approximately 73 percent of the vote in a run-off election, and high voting numbers in his favor are likely due to continuing violence and poor management on behalf of the Fretilin Party.

Horta, who spearheaded the independence struggle overseas, secured the backing of five of the candidates defeated in the first round of voting a month ago. He swept 10 of the country's 13 districts, gaining up to 15 times as many votes as his rival in some areas.

Former East Timor president Xanana Gusmao blames the Fretilin party for violent clashes in the run-up to the recent presidential vote and warned of a spiral of violence if Fretilin's candidate lost. Reuters reported that rival party supporters threw rocks at each other during the last day of official campaigning for the presidential election and injuring at least 30 people.

According to Horta, intimidation tactics have been widespread in some districts and sub-districts by hardliner Fretilin elements that include top officials. It is likely that this action will remain counter-productive to Fretilin's credibility in the upcoming election.

Fretilin has dominated the government since East Timor won its independence in 2002, and is the party most closely associated with the struggle for self-rule. Fretilin's now-disbanded military wing, Falintil, waged the guerrilla war against Indonesia in 1975.

Fretilin's party president, Francisco Guterres, earned only 27 percent of the presidential vote, and he has acknowledged that his party must work hard to retain its seats in the parliamentary election. At least 10,000 Fretilin supporters abandoned the party to vote for Horta in the presidential run-off election. It appears that Fretilin did not gain any extra votes in the second round election, while Horta gained the votes of all the losing candidates from the first round poll.

Analysts and election observers stationed in the country believe the massive win in the second-round presidential poll could signal a shift in East Timor's political scene ahead of the national legislative elections in June. They say that the weakening of Fretilin's grip on power, as suggested by the election results, could open the way for a more vibrant democracy. However, Horta points out that the party is still a very important political force.

Former president Gusmao intends to run for prime minister in June, a more powerful post in East Timor than the presidency. This move indicates that he will likely attempt to seize control of parliament from Fretilin. Gusmao has formed a new right-wing political party and aims to create a coalition government of anti-Fretilin parties following parliamentary elections, according to media reports.

Former prime minister and current Fretilin Secretary-General Mari Alkatiri insists he will continue to lead the party into the parliamentary elections even though he appears to be unpopular. The June elections will increase tensions across the country as Gusmao and Alkatiri have been political enemies for decades.

Many citizens blame Fretilin for the violence that took place in 2006 and general mismanagement of the country, according to a report in the UK-based paper The Guardian. UN officials in the capital of Dili say one of the fundamental weaknesses of the government has been the lack of administrative capability to implement programs approved in the budget. This has led to delays in government spending on improved infrastructure and services. Rural infrastructure, market buildings, country roads, clinics and homes destroyed in the militia mayhem of 1999 remain untouched. At the same time, private investment has been low.

Despite sizable offshore oil and gas deposits, nearly half of East Timor's work force is unemployed, around 60 percent of children under five are malnourished and tens of thousands of people displaced last year remain in tent camps, according to a report in The International Herald Tribune.

Violence has plagued East Timor since it gained independence in 2002. The country plunged into a political and security crisis in May 2006 after approximately 40 percent of the army went on strike over alleged discrimination in promotions and compensation. The government under Prime Minister Alkatiri fired the striking soldiers, sparking a wave of violence that drove approximately 150,000 people from their homes and killed 37 others - factors which likely lead to Fretilin's diminished support for Guterres.

Mercyhurst-ISN intelligence briefs offer foresight into issues that are likely to dominate news headlines and policy agendas. The briefs are a joint initiative of the ISN and Mercyhurst Institute for Intelligence Studies and are composed and referenced using open sources